EARLY WARNING VOLUME 12, PART TWO AFRICA BRIEFS SOUTH AFRICA. A spate of murders and violent or armed robberies over New Year's has caused alarm in South Africa where Police Minis- ter Sydney Mufamadi has announced immediate plans for creating a "more representative" police force. One murder victim was a Danish tourist slain in the Orange Free State. In Johannesburg, a young business man and a police reservist were gunned down by a gang holding up a gas station. Police in Cape Town reported at least 19 murders over the New Year's weekend. Outside Johannes- burg in Soweto's Baragwanath hospital, some 400 victims of violent crime were treated each day of the holiday. Minister Mufamadi's plans for the police include a redeployment of its generals and the appointment of many more black divisional chiefs. SOUTH AFRICA. South Africa's state-owned arms agency Armscor acknowledged last month that a subsidiary is making chemical warfare agents such as mustard gas. The company said these were manufactured only in the limited research quantities allowed by international con- vention. Phillip Coleman, manager of the Pro- technik laboratory that makes the agents, told reporters during a tour of the plant outside Johannesburg that the Chemical Weapons Conven- tion (CWC) allowed signatories to maintain "a single small-scale facility." He said Protechnik made small samples of mustard gas and other agents as part of operation to test clothing, air filters and chemical-weapons-detection systems. Coleman said his company was helping to ascer- tain which companies in South Africa are making industrial chemicals that could be processed into warfare agents. The company spokesman disclaimed knowledge of whether South African companies had provided such chemical warfare agents to countries like Iraq, which is known to have used chemical weapons during its Gulf war against Iran and against Kurdish insurgents and villagers. Under the terms of the CWC, which South Africa signed in January 1994, member states must monitor the production and marketing of Schedule Three chemicals. Armscor chief Tielman de Waal said South Africa had no stocks of chemical weapons. ZIMBABWE. Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's second largest city, imposed strict water rationing on New Year's Day to try to save dwindling supplies. George Mlilo, director of engineering services in the Bulawayo City Council, disclosed that this city of more than one million people has less than a year's water supply, prompting the council to ration water. Almost all the country's rains arrive between September and April, but the El Ni¤o effect has gravely disrupted the customary weather pattern. "We have 54 million cubic meters of water in our reserves at the moment of which only 30 million cubic meters are usable water. This is less than a year's supply," Mlilo said. Bulawayo's annual water consumption is between 36 and 40 million cubic meters a year. During the devastat- ing 1992 drought, dozens of Bulawayo's industries relocated or closed because of water shortages. "Industrialists in the city are very cooperative this time and the council has allowed industries to use substantial amounts of water to safeguard the few jobs available," Mlilo said Meanwhile, Zimbabwe's sole electricity supply authority said that the lack of rain threatens to close some power stations fed by Lake Kariba - Zimbabwe's leading energy supplier. "The dam level is now very low and the authority is con- cerned," a spokesman said. "If rains fail to fall before the end of the month, power stations may be threatened with closure as did happen in 1992." During the 1992 drought, frequent power cuts crippled industries and forced households to make do with candles or charcoal stoves. ZIMBABWE. More than a thousand black Zimbabweans marched through central Harare last week to protest alleged racism by banks and other white-controlled businesses. Shouting such slo- gans as "Murungus [whites] go back West" and "Cecil Rhodes was a bandit and whites are still thieves" and waving banners reading "Black eco- nomic empowerment now," the demonstrators marched to a number of banks including Barclays and Standard Chartered to present demands that lending to blacks increase and repossessions of black-owned homes and properties be halted. While marchers jeered at white passers-by, there was no violence nor any arrests. There was extensive coverage by both the state-owned radio and television services. The demonstration fol- lows a marked rise in anti-white [one percent of the 10 million population] rhetoric by government leaders and the growth of black empowerment pressure groups connected to President Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party. Anti-white sentiment has been galvanized by the trial - and conviction this week - of Dr. Richard McGown for killing five black patients via injections in experiments. With national elections due within the next five months, it appears that anti-white antagonism will form a significant platform. In the past, Zimbabwe was held up as an exemplar of multi- racial society; but whites have stuck together socially. They retain a very conspicuous control of private business and a mere 4,000 own half the farmland. Most blacks remain very poor. There discontent was exacerbated by a World Bank- sponsored structural adjustment program that has made the price of basic goods soar, while unem- ployment increases. CHINA BEIJING. When it was founded in August 1992, the Guangya Primary School was called the largest private school to be created since the establishment of the People's Republic in 1949. In Beijing, 30 non-governmental universities have been founded since the first, the Chinese Social University, was established in 1982. A private primary school opened in Beijing in November 1993 has been joined by ten new private schools; and more than 90 additional private schools are awaiting approval. As the trend for Chinese nationals to set up private schools begins to heat up, foreigners are also entering the market. The first experimental international school was established in Nanjing in early 1993. Since then, a large number of private establishments with names such as "international school," "intensive English school" and "public school" have emerged. They are funded by for- eign businessmen as joint ventures or as sole foreign investments. Only 40 of the more than 1,000 private schools charge high fees and specialize in educating the children of the wealthy. The vast majority of the private schools charge on a scale that is admittedly higher than the public school fees, but are still within the capacity of most wage earners. BEIJING. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has taken unprecedented steps to crack down on corruption within the military - corrup- tion exacerbated by the army's growing involve- ment with businesses ranging from arms and uniform factories to conference centers and resort hotels. For the first time, the PLA leadership has published guidelines on economic accountability and fiscal discipline, effective on January 1 as Temporary Regulation on Economic Accounting. Army sources report that the policy-setting Central Military Commission and the army's Commission for Disciplinary Inspection called repeated meetings during 1994 on curbing corrup- tion and cutting down on "irregular" business. Recommendations range from closing down busi- ness units run under the level of Group Army as well subsuming the bulk of army businesses under the General Logistics Department. Critics of the PLA's business empire include government departments and civilian companies irked by the PLA's exemption from taxes and use of military facilities for commercial operations. The regulation is intended to combat such irregu- larities as the misuse of army funds, equipment and land, particularly for speculative business. GUANGZHOU. The Public Security Bureau recently broke up an underground workshop network making and distributing fake credit cards in Shenzen, the Special Economic Zone bordering Hong Kong. Two men were arrested and charged with selling some 300 fake Master and Visa cards for between $250 and $385 each. The fake cards were designed in the name of six overseas bank issuers doing business in Taiwan and Hong Kong. HONG KONG. The local business tycoons who already enjoy Rolls-Royces, Harris Tweeds and stocks of Glenfiddich whisky have discovered they also can enjoy becoming a baron or even a lord. Two Scottish castles that entitle their own- ers to call themselves baron were recently sold to Hong Kong buyers. Several more are on offer. The deed of Mounie Castle in Aberdeenshire, Scotland, carrying the titles of baron and baro- ness, will be transferred to new Chinese owners. The purchase price for the 17th century castle - 15 rooms, a library, main hall, paddocks and stables - was a mere $300,000 - less than a typical high-rise apartment in Hong Kong. The Edinburgh dealer who sold Mounie Castle is planning a foray into Hong Kong and Mainland China this year. Among the titled properties he is offering will be Earlshall Castle in Fife where Mary Queen of Scots once lived. In some parts of the Orient, because of the high esteem in which holders of titles are held, such sales attract many buyers. Said one real estate salesman, "People who have lived under colonial rule regard a title as a very impressive thing; and some need a bolt hole as well." LHASA. Southwest China's Tibetan Autono- mous Region is speeding up construction of a holiday village at Conngo Lake, 200 miles east of Lhasa. In 1993, construction commenced of three villas, each with nine suites of rooms. It will include guest rooms and facilities for lake and water sports. When completed in 1997, the village will combine sight-seeing, food services, shop- ping, housing and recreation and will accommo- date 1,200 tourists a year. SHANGHAI. As the computer fever in Shang- hai continues to grow, city authorities are growing concerned over the spread of pornographic com- puter games. Beijing's Zhongguo Xinwen She writes, "Computer software supplied by game clubs contain scenes of pornographic sexual games and girl cards. When a player wins a card game, the loser, a sexy and lustful girl, will strip them- selves by taking off her clothes one after one. It must be noted that most game users are young students and that they have to spend ten remminbi to obtain these `wonderful softwares.'" Porno- graphic software program diskettes, easily escape inspection by customs officers. Doubtless, Shang- hai will have a hard time ensuring "a clean and healthy development of computer fever." The Test Laboratory Italy's search for a new prime minister came to a halt today as President Oscar Luigi Scalfaro announced he had asked austere former Treasury Minister Lamberto Dini, 63, to form a government. It has taken three weeks to resolve the political crisis since Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's government collapsed just before Christmas and the Quirinale presidential palace announced that the 76-year-old president had retired to bed with political "influenza." The search for a successor was stuck on com- promise on the form of a new government. Berlusconi insisted that he be given a new man- date or elections be held by April. The Demo- cratic Party of the Left (PDS) emerged from the talks saying that Scalfaro still wanted a non-party government and would probably require Berlus- coni to return to parliament to seek a vote of confidence, which he was unlikely to win. Dini, an independent, will take office only after he forms a Cabinet and wins a parliamentary vote of confidence. He did not indicate whether his government would be an interim one in prepara- tion for early elections or had longer term ambi- tions. He pledged to form a technocratic Cabinet that would address the budget deficit and reform the pension and electoral systems. Observers in Rome believe that a Dini government will fail unless it calls a general election within the next four months, as the Forza Italia is insisting. Dini is expected to have Forza support for much of his agenda plus the backing of Gian- franco Fini, who probably is now the country's most admired politician, and his National Alliance (NA), together with defectors from the coalition- wrecking Northern League (LN). The collapse of Berlusconi's eight-month-old government was in part due to inexperience. His only previous involvement in politics was as leader of the Forza Italia movement that he founded three months before becoming prime minister. Berlusconi was brought down by the opening of anti-corruption investigations into Fininvest, his corporate empire, by magistrate Antonio Di Pietro, followed by desertion of the League and parliamentary demands for a vote of confidence. Though Di Pietro claims neither political experience nor ambition, his December resignation in protest of Berlusconi's policies allowed Northern League chief Umberto Bossi to smash the governing coalition. Subsequently, Di Pietro was considered a possible prime minister. The ardently pro-capitalist Northern League was founded before, not after, the end of the Cold War. It resonated the protest of the North that its taxes and resources were supporting the poor, corrupt and incompetent South. The LN includes those from the far right, such as Cham- ber of Deputies Speaker Irene Pivetti and Interior Minister Roberto "Bobo" Maroni, a so-called "progressive" who often turns up at ceremonial functions wearing the "shades and stubble" look. With Berlusconi being grilled by Di Pietro's henchmen, Bossi made his play and switched his party's support from a rightist government to the leftist opposition - the ex-Communist PDS. This switch did not propel Bossi into a critical role in a new coalition government. To Bossi's chagrin his political treachery produced a rebellion in his ranks with about a third of the League's deputies rallying behind his deputy leader, "Bobo" Maroni. Many believe that Bossi's mistake was to forget that the one party of significance to emerge in the years since the fall of communism is Forza Italia, whose raison d'ˆtre was - and remains - to keep up the battle against communism. The paradox is more apparent than real. What kept the Italian Communist Party (PCI) from government was not just the resistance to it offered by the Christian Democrats and their American allies but also the PCI's close links to the repressive and inefficient Soviet Union. These handicaps vanished with the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the disappearance of the Christian Democrats in an ocean of corruption. The Communist Party of Italy, replacing with a red rose the hammer and sickle symbol and remo- deled as the Democratic Party of the Left, was primed to exploit the new opportunities that could have given them power. It was then that Berlusconi entered politics. Berlusconi's margin of victory was too narrow for him to govern without the exotic coalition that has now disintegrated. With that disintegration, his right-wing ally, Gianfranco Fini, may be given the initiative. Should the power of the perceived neo-fascist National Alliance increase, an old-style left-right confrontation of unparal- leled proportions would quickly follow, not only in Italy but also in the international institutions of Europe and, indeed, the world. Italian society appears to have created new types of politicians. Berlusconi was created by the television stations that he controls; and Di Pietro's celebrity status stems from the televised court proceedings where he grilled the once- mighty. With the new politicians, perhaps as an expression of the global retreat from ideology, come new political parties - the League, the Forza and the Alliance - that transcend the tra- ditional left-to-right classification and are impos- sible to classify on conventional criteria. European observers in Rome point out some key facts from Italy's political scene: there is clear evidence that if corruption becomes systematic, it can be as devastating as conditions created by military defeat; secondly, control of television and the mass media can be used effectively for very precise ideological ends; and thirdly, the tradi- tional left-right conflict remains at the center of politics and is likely to remain so. Perhaps Italy has transformed itself, unwittingly, to the political test laboratory for the 21st century. Algerie Francaise The Christmas Day storming of the hijacked French aircraft in Marseille and the rescue of 171 hostages by a force of "super-gendarmes" - the GIGN - was a singular triumph for Prime Minis- ter Edouard Balladur and his Interior Minister Charles Pasqua. Yet before the glow of success could fade, four Catholic priests were murdered in the courtyard of their church in Tizi Ouzou, Algeria, by extremists from the Armed Islamic Group (GIA), the organization responsible for the hijacking. In a statement sent to news organiza- tions, the GIA said it killed the priests, three French and one Belgian, as part of a campaign of "annihilation and physical liquidation of Christian crusaders." The hijacking of the Air France Airbus A-300 from Algiers to Marseilles did more than expand the battlefield of the North African civil war to France. With the GIA and associated terrorist groups subsequently delivering ultimatums to the United States, Britain and Germany to close their embassies in Algeria or expect their in-country diplomats and citizens to be killed, the war escal- ated at best to another North-South conflict and, at worst, to an Islamic jihad against Christians. Clearly, careful thought was given to the tim- ing of the hijacking. It took place on the third anniversary of the first round of Algeria's legisla- tive elections, in which the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), offering simplistic solutions to com- plicated modern problems, polled more votes than any other party. The elections had been necessi- tated through Western pressure on Algeria. After three decades of inevitable state centralist ineffi- ciency and notorious corruption, the National Liberation Front (FLN), underpinned by a mili- tary that already was the regime's most privileged prop, and the Algerian elite, had no wish to sur- render authority to the FIS that won first local elections, then the first parliamentary round. With prompting from Paris and the tacit sup- port of the West, the army and security service forced Algeria's president to resign, cancelled the second round of polling, and declared a state of emergency under which many FIS leaders and supporters were arrested. Within weeks, violence and terrorism by the Islamist factions erupted. The state of emergency, still in force, has not prevented the loss of an estimated 25,000 lives, with 800 more being killed each week. The war is being fought on one side by several political Islamist organizations, including the most fanatical, the GIA, which pursues its ends with savage and insane harshness, and on the other side, by the brutal, corrupt and unelected military government. Within the FIS coalition, there is a power play between the political leaders, such as Abassi Madani and Ali Belhadj, who were moved not long ago from a top security prison to a heavily guarded villa, and the uncompromising extremists of the GIA. Seeking to impose its control through terror on the Algerian masses, the GIA seizes the headlines in Algeria by killing women for their "un-Islamic" behavior or dress - those not wearing veils, schoolgirls wearing their uniforms, teachers, hairdressers and beauticians; and murdering men for so-called "crimes" such as teaching in secular schools, selling French-language newspapers and writing newspaper articles critical of the GIA. The GIA makes headlines abroad by killing for- eign diplomats, businessmen, priests and expatri- ates. Against this onslaught, the political leaders of the FIS, from which the GIA has broken, struggle to maintain their authority from exile in Britain, Germany and the United States. They raise funds and engage in "dialogue" with Western governments. Their contacts are constantly undercut by those whose policies or positions are wrecked or weakened by existence of a moderate, democratic Islamic reform party. These wreckers include the GIA, the French government that has old and comfortable ties with the Algerian mili- tary, and the International Monetary Fund, which seeks to provide billions of dollars to Algeria's military-backed regime. The ease with which the hijackers seized the Air France Airbus at Algiers airport and the subsequent GIA atrocities indicate a situation far worse than a mere failure of security. In both Algeria and France, there is evidence of a grow- ing "majority tolerance" of militant political Islam that could be spreading throughout the West. Newspaper readers in France and Algeria could claim confusion as to what transpired since post- hijacking accounts of the statements of the Air France crew contradicted those of the Algerian government. Some interpreted the Air France crew's efforts to develop a relationship with their four captors as "a humane bond that became ami- cable," as the hijackers called forward passengers to be killed as examples - a Vietnamese assumed to be a Communist atheist and the French Embassy's cook - and emphasized that the GIA permitted the evacuation of some women passen- gers, children and the sick. Having failed to offer enough democratic reform to split the Islamists yet still retain author- ity, Algeria's military President General Liamine Zeroual also is now in a power struggle. In Algeria's political argot there are two factions: the eradicateurs, whose "final solution" accepts the killing of five million people, and the conciliat- eurs, who claim to have a solution that would dispose of several thousands. Pressure from the eradicateurs has blocked direct talks between the government and the FIS political leadership. There are complicating factors, chief of which is the attitude of the French government that has rejected the belated and changed advice of Amer- ica and Europe - particularly Spain - and backs a repressive line against the Islamists. French officials justify this strategy by raising the spectre of a massive influx of Algerian "boat people" should the military government collapse. Military and political observers in Paris and Algiers think such an event is improbable, since they judge that neither side is sufficiently strong to win the civil war. Should there be an exodus from Algeria to France, the refugees would not be "boat people" but "yacht people." The ‚migr‚s would be Algeria's Francophile technocratic and intellectual elites, who would have few problems being absorbed in the French economy. As Algeria's civil war expands, so French politics are seen as dominant in the non-solution. It is inevitable that the civil war in Algeria will figure prominently in France's May presidential elections. Last summer, the murders of five French officials in Algiers prompted Interior Minister Charles Pasqua to expel leading political Islamists associated with the FIS and to establish police check points in Paris at the height of the tourist season. Since then, the French electorate has grasped the seriousness of the situation. French authorities believe the hijacking was arranged with help from inside France. Thus, it is not unreasonable to expect a further crack- down on France's Algerian community - both mainstream and fundamentalist. Obviously this seriousness is most apparent to Prime Minister Edouard Balladur, who, in the absence of Jacques Delors as the Socialist candi- date, seems destined to move to the Elys‚e Palace and to take with him Pasqua as prime minister. Pasqua, rather than Foreign Minister Alain Jupp‚, has been the architect of France's commitment to supporting Zeroual. Jupp‚ said recently he is "convinced, unhappily, that the solution to the Algerian drama is not close." Pasqua, who often says rhetorically, "We would love to have dialogue with moderate Algerian Muslims. But where are they?" is taking pains not to attack France's large North African community. Apart from being an important part of the elec- torate, many immigrants and their French-born children require reassurance that despite large "suburban" ghettos where the unemployment rate among youths of African and North African heritage is as high as 60 percent, rows over whether girls may opt to cover their hair with scarves in school, and a new inflammatory line of preaching in many mosques, they are still wel- come in France. Pasqua provides such assurances and has become a folk hero to many North Africans. He takes care to cultivate the mainstream Muslim population by attending the opening of mosques and other Muslim events; and his tough line against political extremists in Algeria is applauded by Muslims in France wishing to live a quiet life. However, with the escalation of the civil war, the prudence of Pasqua may not be able to con- tinue, although the popularity he has gained since the rescue of the hostages from the airbus in Marseilles has made him near invincible on the problems of Islamic political extremism. According to British and German intelligence sources, French agencies have persuaded sections of the Western media that there is a global funda- mentalist Islamic conspiracy, funded by Iran and implemented through training in the Sudan. These sources allege that campaigns of deliberate disinformation are being carried out by the French with two main goals: first, they are intended to broaden popular support for the gov- ernment leaders in advance of the presidential election, as they continue backing the military regime in Algiers despite disquiet over the human rights violations of both sides; and second, to increase support in other European countries for a crackdown on sympathizers and organizers who support the Algerian Islamic extremists. Accord- ing to one veteran intelligence officer, "My own reading is that the French are putting pressure on Europe to say this is your problem and not only ours." Within this context, it is noted with interest that the FIS executives-in-exile have characterized the ultimatum to Western embassies as a "dubious threatening letter" and French disinformation that serves "only the interests of the army-led govern- ment." According to the FIS representatives, neither they nor the Islamic Salvation Army [the official armed wing of the FIS] have issued such threats. The FIS continued by stating that it considered the civil conflict limited to the Alge- rian people on one hand and the military dictator- ship on the other. The FIS statement ended by condemning "all actions against innocents, what- ever their views or religion and whoever carries them out." At this time, to offset human rights charges against the French government, Germany and Britain both have media campaigns targeting FIS exiles as GIA terrorists. Germany and Britain both quietly cooperate with the French security organi- zations, and while the policy of the Clinton White House is for negotiations, French sources claim that their relationships with the FBI Liason Office in Paris on Islamic matters is excellent. To many in the intelligence communities of the West, the massive escalation of Islamic extremist terrorism against the government of Egypt, the continued acts of terrorism of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) together with the New York World Trade Center bombing, the independence struggles among the Chechens, Tatars and Tajiks of the former Soviet Union, the misery of Bosnia and the Algerian civil war are woven into a seamless web of criminal intrigue. At the New Year, representatives of Syria and Saudi Arabia met in Cairo with President Hosni Mubarak to discuss plans in the light of the Algerian situation. What these three regimes have in common is that each supported the West during Operation Desert Storm and is threatened by this new jihad of political dissent. In the West, with the Cold War dormant and military budgets being trimmed, Algeria and a global Islamic threat are good, not only for the ascendancy of the Balladur and Pasqua team, but also for the military and intelligence mandarins of many other countries. END OF PART TWO, EW VOLUME 12.